曾被国内外众多投资人亲睐的滴滴为何至今还没能上市？这应该是不少人心中的疑惑。以下，我们就将基于螺旋动力理论，对该话题进行探讨。（本文首次于2019年2月发表于微信公众号@整合螺旋动力，本次未作文字修改）
图1：螺旋动力之8层价值模因
概念注释：
模因(meme)，指的是在诸如语言、观念、信仰、行为方式等的传递过程中，与基因在生物进化过程中所起的作用相类似的事物。
根据《牛津英语词典》，meme被定义为：“文化的基本单位，通过非遗传的方式特别是模仿，而得到传递。”
价值模因(value meme)，指的是一种核心价值系统(core value system)，一种世界观(worldview)。它是贯穿于所有的架构(structures)、决策系统(decision making system)以及文化的多样性表达(diversified expressions of culture)的组织原则(organizing principles)。—— extracted from Spiral Dynamics in Action, 2018
滴滴对外投资失利
从图2和图3关于滴滴的相关报道中可以看出，似乎滴滴运营决策的目标，主要处在图1的橙色（成就驱动）内，
但其对于运营决策的管理，似乎未能来自更高的黄色（系统思维）层级，
而更像是在红色层级，以至因「为所欲为」而导致可能最终失利？
图2：滴滴战略失误频频
图3：垄断vs共享
「软富组合」对滴滴进行战略投资
并处于橙色（成就驱动）和黄色（系统思维）层级，两者之间早就开始相互整合的战略投资人，软银中国或富士康的角色，似乎开始变得有些尴尬？
图4：「软富组合」对滴滴进行战略投资
图5：「软富」之间相互整合
也许软银中国&富士康哥俩应该早两年进入，以对滴滴的战略决策比如投资ofo等等施加足够的利好影响？
滴滴的三原色
又或因滴滴的原始基因，本就固着在了“红蓝橙”（冲动—专断—醉心于追逐利润）？
某业内人士曾表态：
“共享经济（黄色整合层级）如果以谋求垄断地位（橙色的钻营+红色的强权）为原始初衷（创业基因），必然会带来种种问题……”
哈罗：曹操！
如今，蚂蚁炼金（蚂蚁金服）不惧火烧（钱），力挺哈罗顺风来趁势打劫。而更具威胁的敌人，更可能是由实业经营转战共享经济的国内外汽车业大佬们。
敢自称「曹操」者，必有吞并八荒之志。如果考虑「曹孟德」扎实背景，其身家岂只千亿RMB？
图6：最强对手来了？
同样玩增量市场（即持续生产相关的产品比如单车，以获得多维度市场收益），ofo已然惨败：因为自行单车随地可弃，而用户的责任和自律性又难以筛选和监管。
而曹操出行玩的是自家生产的汽车，直接生产成本和维修保养费用都更为可控，取用停放时其GPS定位都更为可靠，同时车辆的日常损耗较单车低，使用寿命更大大长于单车：这些因素都将降低曹操出行的整体运营成本。
ofo之殇
请允许笔者暂时偏一下题，简单聊聊ofo。
事实上，笔者在第一次体验ofo时，就直觉它不会长久，因发现其制造工艺和质量偏低。在这种情况下，也许初期投放在大学校园运作尚可维系运营。因为大学校园内部的使用者，不论是大学生还是大学教师，多处于蓝色（严格遵从习俗规则或道德伦理）层级，从而更可能实现对共享单车的自觉维护，延长了ofo的使用寿命。
然而，一旦当柔弱的ofo被投入到校园之外的一二线城市中，在红色（自我中心，唯吾独尊）的存在数量不可小觑的「丛林」中，必然难以避免被各路「猎食者」弱肉强食的悲惨结局（被有意无意地藏匿，损坏甚至直接抛弃）。
之所以造成这一结果，笔者认为其核心决策者的认知和意识水平恐难辞其咎。如果他们能够多了解一些社会心理学知识，多一些「同理心」，应该能够提前预想到，广大的社会人士可能将会如何对待那些身骨单薄的共享单车。显然，他们的动机和思维早已深度扎根于橙色（成就驱动）层级，却可惜无缘领会来自绿色（发展并保持一颗同理心）层级的关键提示。
对于ofo来说，一方面为了迅速占有市场份额而投入大量资金生产产品（单车），另一方面又因为顾及成本而牺牲产品的品质。俗话说得好，己所不欲，勿施于人。如果是一辆决策者可能连自己都瞧不上眼，懒得去骑的劣质单车，又指望消费者会有多么爱惜？
如果历史可以重演，也许ofo会考虑投放重甲单车。
说曹操，曹操就到
曹操出行采用「公车公营」，这一点在形势上似乎跟传统的出租车公司相似。但前者正从黄色整合思维层级进行运作，对于处在蓝色科层组织架构的后者，属于典型的「降维打击」。而前者业已开始利用其扎实背景，尝试与一些传统出租车公司联合，瞄准了高端出行服务。
图7：「曹操」实施降维打击？
尽管曹操出行的以上举动似乎透出一丝丝国进民退的味道，但现实情况是，它在自家的田里「想种什么菜就种什么菜」。比如其随后发展出的同城快递，智慧出行，高端出行服务和传媒等等。总的来说，曹操出行可以算是一直尝试在做不同层面的整合（在黄色层级运作）。
图8：「曹操」既来，滴滴何从？
结语
至于曹操出行在未来关键时刻运作的灵活程度，及其最终资源整合的范围和力度，最终可能还是得看系在它身上的紫红蓝橙条码的牛皮带，是在脖子、腰眼还是头发丝上？
而滴滴今年在市场上的各种举动所透露出的颜色，是停留在橙+红，还是大跃进地由橙+红借绿转黄，必将成为判断其最终成功与否的风向标。
图9：橙黄？橙恐？
国内的「共享经济」市场，用通俗的说法打个比方，就像是一群身披黄绿色（系统思维+整合资源+行善意愿）斗篷，内穿橙铜锁子甲（被物欲成就感所驱动），同时两手提枪带剑（仰赖霸权）的人在械斗。
而「滴滴」和「曹操」以及其他群雄，在这场价值模因「颜色」大战的最终结局如何，且让我们拭目以待。
螺旋动力理论(Spiral Dynamics)，由已故美国心理学家Clare W. Graves从1950年代开始进行理论研究，后续经由现已年逾80高龄的Don E. Beck博士和Christopher C. Cowan及其团队数十年的研究发展与实践检验提炼而成。是为解码个体，组织和社会发展变迁规律的大规模心理学应用的宝典。
Attributions to ValueMatch.net on whose work and efforts the vMeme detailed descriptions (tables) in this article are based.
Author
Frank Lin – business coach, consultant, EQ trainer. Founder of Cidrix Consulting Shanghai. Dedicated to the spread and application of Spiral Dynamics Integral in China. (ValueMatch Certified Practitioner, Spiral Dynamics integral Level 2 certified)
Email: SDi@SpiralDyanmics.cn
WeChat: QuantumSelf
Wechat Public Account: SpiralDynamics
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Hi, you are welcome! And I appreciate your comment!
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Frank Lin
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Keep up the good work– and take care of yourself during the coronavirus scare!
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Hello Justin,
Thanks for your message. Your site looks great actually. The theme I used is “Twenty Seventeen”.
Hope this helps.
Take care too!
Frank Lin
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I’ll check back later on and see if the problem still exists.
Thanks for letting me know! Where are you based BTW?
Keep well!
Frank
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Sorry that the spelling has troubled you! The original article was written in Chinese. I assume the spelling issue would probably be due to the auto-translation by Google?
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